Machine learning-based scoring system to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic. AIMS: To develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Among 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6±17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n=2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.

Impact of the First COVID-19 Wave on French Hospitalizations for Myocardial Infarction and Stroke: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

The COVID-19 pandemic modified the management of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volume and spatial distribution of hospitalizations for MI and stroke, before, during and after the first nationwide lockdown in France in 2020, compared with 2019. Hospitalization data were extracted from the French National Discharge database. Patient's characteristics were compared according to COVID-19 status. Changes in hospitalization rates over time were measured using interrupted time series analysis. Possible spatial patterns of over or under-hospitalization rates were investigated using Moran's indices. We observed a rapid and significant drop in hospitalizations just before the beginning of the lockdown with a nadir at 36.5% for MI and 31.2% for stroke. Hospitalization volumes returned to those seen in 2019 four weeks after the end of the lockdown, except for MI, which rebounded excessively. Older age, male sex, elevated rate of hypertension, diabetes, obesity and mortality characterized COVID-19 patients. There was no evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of over- or under-hospitalization clusters over the three periods. After a steep drop, only MI showed a significant rebound after the first lockdown with no change in the spatial distribution of hospitalizations.

Trends of Myocarditis and Endocarditis Cases before, during, and after the First Complete COVID-19-Related Lockdown in 2020 in France.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalization for cardiac infections is not well known. We aimed to evaluate the nationwide trends in hospital stays for myocarditis and endocarditis cases before, during and after the nationwide lockdown for the COVID-19 pandemic in France. We then aimed to describe the proportion of myocarditis and endocarditis patients with and without COVID-19 and their clinical characteristics. METHODS: Hospitalized cases of cardiac infection were extracted from the French National Discharge database, which collects the medical records of all patients discharged from all public and private hospitals in France. Age, sex, and available cardiovascular risk factors were compared between stays with and without COVID-19 during the lockdown. RESULTS: The number of myocarditis cases was 11% higher in 2020, compared to the average of the three prior years. In 2020, 439 of 3727 cases of myocarditis were associated with COVID-19. For endocarditis, there was an increase in cases by 7% in 2020 versus prior years. For endocarditis, 3% (240 of 8128 cases) of patients with endocarditis had COVID-19. For myocarditis, older age, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and atrial fibrillation were more frequent in patients with COVID-19 than in those without. For endocarditis, only hypertension was more frequent in patients with COVID-19 than in those without. CONCLUSION: Our study reports an increase in hospitalizations for both myocarditis and endocarditis in 2020, possibly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, the trends differ according to the COVID-19 status. Knowledge of the factors associating myocarditis or endocarditis and COVID-19 may improve the quality and the type of monitoring for people with COVID-19, the identification of patients at risk of cardiac infections, and the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Trends of Myocarditis and Endocarditis Cases before, during, and after the First Complete COVID-19-Related Lockdown in 2020 in France

Background. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalization for cardiac infections is not well known. We aimed to evaluate the nationwide trends in hospital stays for myocarditis and endocarditis cases before, during and after the nationwide lockdown for the COVID-19 pandemic in France. We then aimed to describe the proportion of myocarditis and endocarditis patients with and without COVID-19 and their clinical characteristics. Methods. Hospitalized cases of cardiac infection were extracted from the French National Discharge database, which collects the medical records of all patients discharged from all public and private hospitals in France. Age, sex, and available cardiovascular risk factors were compared between stays with and without COVID-19 during the lockdown. Results. The number of myocarditis cases was 11% higher in 2020, compared to the average of the three prior years. In 2020, 439 of 3727 cases of myocarditis were associated with COVID-19. For endocarditis, there was an increase in cases by 7% in 2020 versus prior years. For endocarditis, 3% (240 of 8128 cases) of patients with endocarditis had COVID-19. For myocarditis, older age, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and atrial fibrillation were more frequent in patients with COVID-19 than in those without. For endocarditis, only hypertension was more frequent in patients with COVID-19 than in those without. Conclusion. Our study reports an increase in hospitalizations for both myocarditis and endocarditis in 2020, possibly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, the trends differ according to the COVID-19 status. Knowledge of the factors associating myocarditis or endocarditis and COVID-19 may improve the quality and the type of monitoring for people with COVID-19, the identification of patients at risk of cardiac infections, and the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Cardiovascular Characteristics and Outcomes of Young Patients with COVID-19.

Although 18-45-year-old (y-o) patients represent a significant proportion of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, data concerning the young population remain scarce. The Critical COVID France (CCF) study was an observational study including consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in 24 centers between 26 February and 20 April 2020. The primary composite outcome included transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) or in-hospital death. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular (CV) complications. Among 2868 patients, 321 (11.2%) patients were in the 18-45-y-o range. In comparison with older patients, young patients were more likely to have class 2 obesity and less likely to have hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia. The primary outcome occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients in comparison with patients > 45 years old (y/o) (16.8% vs. 30.7%, p < 0.001). The 18-45-y-o patients presented with pericarditis (2.2% vs. 0.5%, p = 0.003) and myocarditis (2.5% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.002) more frequently than patients >45 y/o. Acute heart failure occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients (0.9% vs. 7.2%, p < 0.001), while thrombotic complications were similar in young and older patients. Whereas both transfer to the ICU and in-hospital death occurred less frequently in young patients, COVID-19 seemed to have a particular CV impact in this population.

History of heart failure in patients with coronavirus disease 2019: Insights from a French registry.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular comorbidities seem to be strongly associated with worse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), data regarding patients with preexisting heart failure are limited. AIMS: To investigate the incidence, characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19 with a history of heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction. METHODS: We performed an observational multicentre study including all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 24 centres in France from 26 February to 20 April 2020. The primary endpoint was a composite of in-hospital death or need for orotracheal intubation. RESULTS: Overall, 2809 patients (mean age 66.4±16.9years) were included. Three hundred and seventeen patients (11.2%) had a history of heart failure; among them, 49.2% had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and 50.8% had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. COVID-19 severity at admission, defined by a quick sequential organ failure assessment score>1, was similar in patients with versus without a history of heart failure. Before and after adjustment for age, male sex, cardiovascular comorbidities and quick sequential organ failure assessment score, history of heart failure was associated with the primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.90; P=0.02). This result seemed to be mainly driven by a history of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.13-2.27; P=0.01) rather than heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.79-1.81; P=0.41). CONCLUSIONS: History of heart failure in patients with COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death or orotracheal intubation. These findings suggest that patients with a history of heart failure, particularly heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, should be considered at high risk of clinical deterioration.

Characteristics and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities on coronavirus disease 2019 in women: A multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although women account for up to half of patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), no specific data have been reported in this population. AIMS: To assess the burden and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities in women with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 24 hospitals from 26 February to 20 April 2020 were included. The primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Among 2878 patients, 1212 (42.1%) were women. Women were older (68.3±18.0 vs. 65.4±16.0 years; P<0.001), but had less prevalent cardiovascular comorbidities than men. Among women, 276 (22.8%) experienced the primary outcome, including 161 (13.3%) transfers to an intensive care unit and 115 (9.5%) deaths without transfer to intensive care unit. The rate of in-hospital death or transfer to an intensive care unit was lower in women versus men (crude hazard ratio [HR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53-0.72). Age (adjusted HR: 1.05 per 5-year increase, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10), body mass index (adjusted HR: 1.06 per 2-unit increase, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.11-2.22) and heart failure (adjusted HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.04-2.22) were independently associated with the primary outcome in women. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide/N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.70-3.44) and troponin (adjusted HR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.39-2.88) concentrations at admission were also associated with the primary outcome, even in women free of previous coronary artery disease or heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Although female sex was associated with a lower risk of transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death, COVID-19 remained associated with considerable morbimortality in women, especially in those with cardiovascular diseases.

Anticoagulation Before Hospitalization Is a Potential Protective Factor for COVID-19: Insight From a French Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease associated with thrombotic outcomes with coagulation and endothelial disorders. Based on that, several anticoagulation guidelines have been proposed. We aimed to determine whether anticoagulation therapy modifies the risk of developing severe COVID-19. Methods and Results Patients with COVID-19 initially admitted in medical wards of 24 French hospitals were included prospectively from February 26 to April 20, 2020. We used a Poisson regression model, Cox proportional hazard model, and matched propensity score to assess the effect of anticoagulation on outcomes (intensive care unit admission or in-hospital mortality). The study enrolled 2878 patients with COVID-19, among whom 382 (13.2%) were treated with oral anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization. After adjustment, anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization was associated with a better prognosis with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55-0.88). Analyses performed using propensity score matching confirmed that anticoagulation therapy before hospitalization was associated with a better prognosis, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.29-0.63) for intensive care unit admission and adjusted hazard ratio of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98) for composite criteria intensive care unit admission or death. In contrast, therapeutic or prophylactic low- or high-dose anticoagulation started during hospitalization were not associated with any of the outcomes. Conclusions Anticoagulation therapy used before hospitalization in medical wards was associated with a better prognosis in contrast with anticoagulation initiated during hospitalization. Anticoagulation therapy introduced in early disease could better prevent COVID-19-associated coagulopathy and endotheliopathy, and lead to a better prognosis.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France: The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a public health crisis. Only limited data are available on the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France. AIMS: To investigate the characteristics, cardiovascular complications and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France. METHODS: The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) study is a French nationwide study including all consecutive adults with a diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection hospitalized in 24 centres between 26 February and 20 April 2020. Patients admitted directly to intensive care were excluded. Clinical, biological and imaging parameters were systematically collected at hospital admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 2878 patients included (mean±SD age 66.6±17.0 years, 57.8% men), 360 (12.5%) died in the hospital setting, of which 7 (20.7%) were transferred to intensive care before death. The majority of patients had at least one (72.6%) or two (41.6%) cardiovascular risk factors, mostly hypertension (50.8%), obesity (30.3%), dyslipidaemia (28.0%) and diabetes (23.7%). In multivariable analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.06; P<0.001), male sex (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.11-2.57; P=0.01), diabetes (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.12-2.63; P=0.01), chronic kidney failure (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.02-2.41; P=0.04), elevated troponin (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.11-2.49; P=0.01), elevated B-type natriuretic peptide or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.0004-2.86; P=0.049) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score ≥2 (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.12-2.60; P=0.01) were independently associated with in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: In this large nationwide cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in France, cardiovascular comorbidities and risk factors were associated with a substantial morbi-mortality burden.

COVID-19 severity in kidney transplant recipients is similar to nontransplant patients with similar comorbidities.

Higher rates of severe COVID-19 have been reported in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) compared to nontransplant patients. We aimed to determine if poorer outcomes were specifically related to chronic immunosuppression or underlying comorbidities. We used a 1:1 propensity score-matching method to compare survival and severe disease-free survival (defined as death and/or need for intensive care unit [ICU]) incidence in hospitalized KTRs and nontransplant control patients between February 26 and May 22, 2020. Patients were matched for risk factors of severe COVID-19: age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, preexisting cardiopathy, chronic lung disease, and basal renal function. We included 100 KTRs (median age [interquartile range (IQR)]) 64.7 years (55.3-73.1) in three French transplant centers. After a median follow-up of 13 days (7-30), transfer to ICU was required for 34 patients (34%) and death occurred in 26 patients (26%). Overall, 43 patients (43%) developed a severe disease during a median follow-up of 8.5 days (2-14). Propensity score matching to a large French cohort of 2017 patients hospitalized in 24 centers, revealed that survival was similar between KTRs and matched nontransplant patients with respective 30-day survival of 62.9% and 71% (p = .38) and severe disease-free 30-day survival of 50.6% and 47.5% (p = .91). These findings suggest that severity of COVID-19 in KTRs is related to their associated comorbidities and not to chronic immunosuppression.

Association of diabetes and outcomes in patients with COVID-19: Propensity score-matched analyses from a French retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of patients with and without diabetes admitted to hospital with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective multicentre cohort study comprised 24 tertiary medical centres in France, and included 2851 patients (675 with diabetes) hospitalized for COVID-19 between 26 February and 20 April 2020. A propensity score-matching (PSM) method (1:1 matching including patients' characteristics, medical history, vital statistics and laboratory results) was used to compare patients with and without diabetes (n = 603 per group). The primary outcome was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and/or in-hospital death. RESULTS: After PSM, all baseline characteristics were well balanced between those with and without diabetes: mean age was 71.2 years; 61.8% were male; and mean BMI was 29 kg/m2. A history of cardiovascular, chronic kidney and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases were found in 32.8%, 22.1% and 6.4% of participants, respectively. The risk of experiencing the primary outcome was similar in patients with or without diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.41; P = 0.14], and was 1.29 (95% CI: 0.97-1.69) for in-hospital death, 1.26 (95% CI: 0.9-1.72) for death with no transfer to an ICU and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.88-1.47) with transfer to an ICU. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, diabetes was not significantly associated with a higher risk of severe outcomes after PSM. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04344327.

Pulmonary embolism in COVID-19 patients: a French multicentre cohort study.

AIMS: While pulmonary embolism (PE) appears to be a major issue in COVID-19, data remain sparse. We aimed to describe the risk factors and baseline characteristics of patients with PE in a cohort of COVID-19 patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a retrospective multicentre observational study, we included consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Patients without computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA)-proven PE diagnosis and those who were directly admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) were excluded. Among 1240 patients (58.1% men, mean age 64 ± 17 years), 103 (8.3%) patients had PE confirmed by CTPA. The ICU transfer and mechanical ventilation were significantly higher in the PE group (for both P < 0.001). In an univariable analysis, traditional venous thrombo-embolic risk factors were not associated with PE (P > 0.05), while patients under therapeutic dose anticoagulation before hospitalization or prophylactic dose anticoagulation introduced during hospitalization had lower PE occurrence [odds ratio (OR) 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14-0.91, P = 0.04; and OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.06-0.18, P < 0.001, respectively]. In a multivariable analysis, the following variables, also statistically significant in univariable analysis, were associated with PE: male gender (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.003-1.069, P = 0.04), anticoagulation with a prophylactic dose (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.79-0.85, P < 0.001) or a therapeutic dose (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.92, P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, P = 0.001), and time from symptom onset to hospitalization (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.006-1.038, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: PE risk factors in the COVID-19 context do not include traditional thrombo-embolic risk factors but rather independent clinical and biological findings at admission, including a major contribution to inflammation.